BUF beat BOS 3–1. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Tuch scored at 4:03 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Alex Lyon saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:26 |  BOS | Tanner Jeannot from Charlie McAvoy | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 10:58 |  BUF | Bowen Byram from Noah Ostlund, Owen Power | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 4:03 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Peyton Krebs, Bowen Byram | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 18:36 | BUF | Noah OstlundEN from Jack Quinn | 3–1 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram D | 21:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.16 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:26 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 8:35 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 9:13 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:29 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:49 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 14:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Logan Stanley D | 13:25 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 16:31 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 18:33 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 14:49 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:27 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 15:16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:52 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.19 | −0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:47 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:16 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 17:21 | −0.51 | +0.23 | −0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 59:55 | +2.00 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Jeannot L | 9:10 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.91 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 18:21 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:07 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 13:27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:44 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:18 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hagens C | 9:53 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:34 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 16:23 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:15 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 19:32 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:32 | −0.29 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:37 | −0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:15 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 21:21 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.60 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:33 | −0.60 | +0.11 | −0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:54 | −0.60 | +0.13 | −0.74 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 58:14 | +1.39 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.