BOS beat BUF 4–2. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Viktor Arvidsson scored at 4:54 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:54 |  BOS | Viktor Arvidsson from Jonathan Aspirot, Casey Mittelstadt | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 16:29 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Sean Kuraly | 2–0 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 18:10 | BOS | Pavel ZachaPP from David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy | 3–0 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 0:16 | BOS | Viktor Arvidsson from Casey Mittelstadt, Jonathan Aspirot | 4–0 | 98% → 99% |
| P3 13:54 |  BUF | Bowen Byram from Beck Malenstyn, Owen Power | 4–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:08 | BUF | Peyton KrebsPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch | 4–2 | 0% → 1% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 13:52 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.08 | +1.27 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:17 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.04 | +0.93 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.04 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 15:41 | +0.38 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:48 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:18 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 11:17 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:50 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 14:22 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 27:40 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:23 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.35 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| James Hagens C | 11:35 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 20:04 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:53 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 16:04 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:23 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:22 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:22 | −0.55 | −0.04 | −0.55 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 59:25 | +1.67 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:13 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.14 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 21:58 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.16 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:12 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 7:29 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:39 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 18:56 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 12:51 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:40 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 13:44 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 17:57 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 20:28 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 20:36 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 11:37 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:50 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:28 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 15:04 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:42 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 16:55 | −1.08 | −0.09 | −0.78 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 14:10 | +0.74 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 40:16 | −1.97 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.