BUF beat BOS 4–3. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mattias Samuelsson scored at 16:36 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 91%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:52 |  BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 1:08 | BOS | Elias Lindholm from Morgan Geekie, David Pastrnak | 2–0 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 12:02 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Peyton Krebs | 2–1 | 3% → 18% |
| P3 15:44 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch | 2–2 | 12% → 51% |
| P3 16:36 | BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Jack Quinn | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 18:48 | BUF | Alex TuchEN from Tage Thompson, Owen Power | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:52 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie | 3–4 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 19:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.56 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:18 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.05 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 21:15 | 1 | 2 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.45 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:06 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 8:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 16:07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 16:08 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 12:19 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:51 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hagens C | 11:02 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:09 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:13 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:42 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:16 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:18 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 12:45 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 58:49 | +0.85 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 20:01 | 2 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.15 | +1.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:20 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.13 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Dunne C | 8:20 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.25 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:39 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 22:50 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 11:51 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 9:38 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 17:55 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 13:48 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:32 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:37 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:14 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:38 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 15:28 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:05 | −0.46 | +0.08 | −0.35 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:10 | −0.59 | +0.04 | −0.44 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:53 | −0.75 |
Playoff recaps: the playoff ledgers have no per-game split of playmaking and suppression, so those credits stay inside the on-ice and finishing columns.
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.