Next games Tue 29 SepModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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Penalty differential

Drawing penalties is a skill, and so is staying out of the box: both carry over strongly from one season to the next. This is every skater since 2010-11: penalties drawn and taken, per 60 minutes, and what the difference is worth in goals.

How it’s measured

Counts are minor and major penalties from the play-by-play, regular season only. Fighting majors, misconducts and bench minors are left out: a fight gives each fighter one penalty taken and one drawn, which cancels but would swamp the rates of players who fight. Drawn means the other team was penalised for a foul on this player.

Net goals prices the difference at each season’s measured value of a penalty (0.162 to 0.198 goals, the same price as the Penalties column on Players). It is measured against a league-average skater with the same ice time: the league as a whole nets slightly negative, because bench minors and penalties with no recorded drawer count as taken but never as drawn. Goals/82 is net goals per 82 games played.

Regressed rates pull small samples toward the league mean. Penalty rates carry over strongly from one season to the next (r = 0.69 for drawn per 60, 0.68 for taken, 0.58 for the difference; 7,060 season pairs of 500+ minutes). That implies a prior worth about 7.6 hours of ice time, so a full season mostly speaks for itself and a 20-game call-up does not. The table is sorted by regressed net per 60 against the league.

At the team level, penalty environments are about discipline, not officiating: see the research index.

Most net goals from penalties, career
  1. Connor McDavid +47.8
  2. Jeff Skinner +44.2
  3. Nazem Kadri +43.6
  4. Nathan MacKinnon +38.0
  5. Johnny Gaudreau +35.0
Best at drawing penalties (drawn per 60, regressed)
  1. Patrick Kaleta 2.42
  2. Derek Dorsett 1.96
  3. Cory Conacher 1.92
  4. Zac Rinaldo 1.88
  5. Rich Clune 1.86
Costliest, career (net goals)
  1. Ian Cole −36.5
  2. Nikita Zadorov −35.9
  3. Tyler Myers −34.6
  4. Dougie Hamilton −31.8
  5. Dustin Byfuglien −29.4

Drawn versus taken

One dot per skater with 1,000+ minutes in the current view, regressed rates. Above the diagonal, a player draws more penalties than they take. Search a name to highlight a player.

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